Global Coffee Supply Turns to Surplus, Vietnam Robusta Prices Under Downward Pressure

Per data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) citing the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee output for 2025-26 is projected at 183.6 million bags (60 kg each), up 4.4% year-on-year. Robusta is seen up 6.5% to 79.2 million bags and Arabica up 2.8% to 104.4 million bags. Meanwhile, global consumption is projected to fall 0.8% to 180.6 million bags, swinging the supply-demand gap into a surplus of about 3 million bags and ending four consecutive years of deficit.

In Vietnam, 2025-26 output recovered to about 31.7 million bags (nearly 1.9 million tonnes), up 6%–10% year-on-year, with robusta above 90% of the crop. The USDA projects Vietnam’s 2026-27 output at 32.5 million bags, up about 2.5%, including 31.4 million bags of robusta. Vietnam accounts for 38%–39% of global robusta output, continuing to weigh heavily on the global supply picture.

Nguyen Duc Dung, deputy director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), said the forecasts are well-grounded at the assessment point and broadly match market trends, but actual output still depends on weather, pests and field management, and may be revised as the season progresses. He recalled that in 2023-24 drought and scale-insect infestation cut Vietnam’s output to about 1.47 million tonnes, down 20% year-on-year, showing weather’s clear impact on yield.

Nguyen noted robusta prices are now shaped by intertwined factors: Vietnam’s new-season supply, Brazil’s crop outlook, demand, inventory levels and futures expectations. Vietnam’s new season begins October–November with limited early arrivals, but the production outlook has already moved expectations; as harvest and exports accelerate from December to February, Vietnam’s supply will weigh more clearly on the global balance.

On inventories, Vicofa said certified robusta stocks on the London exchange remain low, constrained by domestic demand, logistics hurdles and sustainability standards. Globally, ICE Arabica stocks are near a 27-year low; Japan’s green-bean stocks fell 12.4% year-on-year in August to their lowest since 2022, European stocks were 7.14 million bags, down 16.8% year-on-year and below the five-year average. Low stocks make the market more sensitive to supply disruptions or quality swings.

Brazil’s crop carries risk; some experts estimate about 7 million bags face quality decline, and actual Arabica output may fall well below the 46-million-bag forecast. Additionally, the US Climate Prediction Center’s October 15 seasonal outlook shows El Niño may strengthen further, with about an 80% chance of maintaining strong intensity from January to March 2027. Nguyen warned the Central Highlands face drought and irrigation-water risk in late 2026 into early 2027, which could affect flower-bud differentiation, flowering and fruit development.

Editor’s Note

Vietnam’s new season only begins October–November, with limited early arrivals, but the production outlook has already moved market expectations; supply pressure will show more clearly as exports accelerate from December to February.

Analysis based on reported facts · presented separately from the news body

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