Jingwei Morning Brief: US EIA Expects Oil Supply Disruptions Through 2027; Colombian Coffee Exports Stalled After Quake

Brief (coffeeyo.com): Overnight markets slipped from record highs as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.94%; the EIA now expects Middle East oil-supply disruptions to persist into 2027, and Colombian coffee exports have essentially stalled after a deadly earthquake that has killed 234 people.

Overnight Market Movers

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 2.94%.

On Tuesday (the 11th) U.S. Eastern Time, U.S. stocks slid further from record highs. At the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.6%, the Dow fell 0.34%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.32%.

Most of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants fell: Tesla and Meta rose slightly, Google dropped more than 3%, Amazon fell more than 2%, Apple fell more than 1%, and Nvidia and Microsoft weakened slightly.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.87%. Optical-communications concept stocks rebounded, with Coherent and Marvell Technology up more than 1% and Lumentum edging higher. Most memory-concept stocks rose, with SK Hynix up more than 4% and SanDisk and Seagate Technology up more than 2%. As semiconductors recovered, ASML rose more than 3%, and AMD, ON Semiconductor, and NXP Semiconductors rose more than 1%, while ARM, Intel, and Qualcomm posted modest gains.

Most popular Chinese ADRs fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.94%. Tencent Music dropped nearly 12%; Lufax and Bilibili fell more than 5%; JD.com, NIO, New Oriental, NetEase, and BOSS Zhipin fell more than 4%; Beike, MINISO, Alibaba, and Baidu fell more than 3%; and Gaotu and TAL fell more than 2%; while Zai Lab rose more than 10% and GDS rose more than 3%.

CNBC believes that investors will next focus on a set of key inflation data, with July CPI to be released on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. After a weak jobs report complicated the Federal Reserve’s expectations for the economic outlook, these figures are particularly important.

Dennis Follmer, Chief Investment Officer of Montis Financial, said: “We expect CPI data to continue to decline, which would further support the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged rather than raise them.”

Iranian Senior Official: US Must Accept Iran’s Conditions in Exchange for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

On the 11th local time, Ali Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that the United States is the root cause of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman, and that the U.S. illegal war against Iran has endangered the entire region. “The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened unless the United States changes its behavior and accepts Iran’s conditions.”

He said the United States must end the war, pay Iran’s frozen funds, and moreover meet other conditions conveyed to them through intermediaries.

He pointed out that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on the passage route through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement “will be handled separately from the issue of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.”

EIA Expects Oil Supply Disruptions to Last Until 2027

International oil prices continued to climb. The September-delivery light crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.07 to settle at $83.20 per barrel, up 1.3%; the October-delivery London Brent crude futures rose $1.19 to settle at $88.91 per barrel, up 1.36%.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest outlook report, raising its 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively, and lifting its 2027 retail gasoline price forecast by 6.5% compared with the projection a month earlier.

At the same time, the EIA expects that the oil supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict will persist until 2027.

France Cracks Down Hard on Cold-Call Telemarketing

According to the Associated Press, France has introduced a new law banning unsolicited telephone solicitations, aimed at protecting consumers from intrusive sales pitches and shielding vulnerable groups from fraudulent business practices.

The report said that previously in France, people who wanted to avoid sales calls had to register their phone numbers with a government-run service, but consumer groups said some call centers ignored the list.

The French government said the law is a response to years of consumer complaints. According to authorities, about three-quarters of people in France receive at least one sales call per week, and many receive more than one.

The report noted that illegal callers can be fined up to 75,000 euros per call, while companies face fines of up to 375,000 euros per call.

Consumers can authorize consent to receive marketing calls, and if a contractual relationship already exists between a company and a customer, the company may also contact the customer to offer new commercial deals.

Colombian Coffee Exports Essentially Stalled After Earthquake

According to Bloomberg, the head of a coffee exporters’ association said Colombian coffee exports have essentially ground to a halt, as a devastating earthquake disrupted operations at the country’s main ports and caused roadblocks along key highways.

The report said port terminal managers are assessing the damage and have suspended or restricted coffee intake operations. Traders are also weighing the quake’s potential supply and logistics impact on the world’s second-largest producer of specialty coffee beans.

According to a notice from Colombia’s Federation of Municipalities on the 11th local time, the death toll from the strong earthquake that struck the country on August 10 had risen to 234.

Sports Brand On Sold Off by Investors After Disappointing Results

According to Bloomberg, Swiss sports brand On’s second-quarter sales fell short of expectations, and its stock recorded its largest-ever single-day drop.

The report said the stock plunged as much as 22% in early New York trading, marking On’s biggest one-day decline since its IPO in September 2021.

The brand also slightly lowered its sales forecast for the year, saying it now expects growth of “around 20%,” down from its previously more optimistic target of “at least 23%.”

Analysis noted that as many brands attract customers through discount promotions, On wants to maintain high prices for its sneakers and new apparel, leading to a poor sales outlook. In an interview, On’s co-CEO said this trend is especially pronounced among its U.S. wholesale customers.

Separately, according to Reuters, On executives said the company will not compromise its full-price sales strategy to boost volume.

Today’s Focus (Beijing Time)

16:00 — IEA monthly oil market report

20:30 — U.S. July unadjusted CPI

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Financial Hotspots

The Ministry of Water Resources activated a Level-IV emergency flood-response for Beijing and Tianjin.

According to forecasts, from the night of August 11 to the 13th, under the combined influence of the residual cloud system of Typhoon “White Dolphin” and southward cold air, Beijing and Tianjin will experience a heavy-precipitation process, mainly moderate to heavy rain. The Yongding River, Liuli River, and Xiaoqing River in Beijing, and the Jiyun River in Tianjin, will see rising water levels, and the risk of mountain torrents and floods in small and medium-sized rivers within the rainstorm area is high. The Ministry of Water Resources activated a Level-IV emergency flood-response for Beijing and Tianjin at 22:30 on August 11.

New BSE Stocks’ Strategic-Allocation Ratio Hits the 30% Cap

Recently, two new BSE stocks—Xinsheng Technology and Shuangying Group—both announced that during their IPO offerings, the strategic-investor allocation ratio was 30% for each. This arrangement breaks the BSE’s long-standing default 10% strategic-allocation ratio for new stocks. According to the Securities Times, those interviewed said this is mainly based on current market conditions, and a higher strategic-allocation ratio is expected to support new-stock performance and reduce first-day breakdowns.

Thai Government Announces Suspension of Gun-Purchase Permits

According to a message on the Thai government website on the 11th, the Thai government issued a notice that day announcing a suspension of gun-purchase permits and a nationwide check of permits for gun transactions not yet completed. Thailand has seen frequent shootings recently. According to Thai media, a shooting occurred on the 10th inside the administrative organization office building in Nonthaburi Province, and the province’s administrative organization chairperson was shot in the head and died despite rescue efforts. On the 7th, a shooting at a middle school in Nonthaburi Province left 9 people dead.

Bank of France Expects 0.2% Economic Growth in Q3

On August 11 local time, the Bank of France released its latest economic survey, projecting France’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of this year, unchanged from the second quarter’s growth rate.

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Source: China News Service Jingwei (CNS Jingwei).

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