Vietnam Central Highlands Coffee Prices Fall Below VND 90,000; Robusta Futures Drop 5.4% on the Week

Central Highlands coffee prices fell below VND 90,000 per kilogram. Over the previous week, online Robusta futures slid sharply: the November contract dropped 5.4% (USD 186/tonne) to close at USD 3,228/tonne, while the January contract lost 4.8% (USD 163/tonne) to USD 3,242/tonne. On the New York exchange, the December Arabica contract edged up 0.6% (1.8 cents/lb) to 307.45 cents/lb, while the March contract fell 0.4% (1.1 cents/lb) to 293.40 cents/lb.

Pressure on Robusta prices mainly comes from increased Brazilian selling and the supply outlook for Vietnam’s new crop. Data from Cepea (the University of São Paulo’s Applied Economics Advanced Research Center) shows Brazil’s 2026/27 first-quarter coffee exports reached 11.2 million bags (60 kg each), up 15.5% year-on-year — the second highest for the period on record, behind only the 12.2 million bags of the 2024/25 first quarter. Robusta exports came to 2.6 million bags, a surge of 66.6% year-on-year; September alone saw 813,900 Robusta bags, up 65.1% year-on-year.

Arabica, by contrast, is supported by limited supply and low ICE exchange inventories. CFTC data show that for the week ending October 20, speculative traders on the ICE flipped from a net short to a net long of 2,744 contracts in Arabica. Brazil’s first-quarter Arabica exports were 7.6 million bags, up 4.2% year-on-year, but September exports of 2.8 million bags fell 6.5% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year.

Brazil’s first-quarter coffee export value was USD 3.56 billion, up just 0.8% year-on-year, with the average export price dropping from USD 363.9 to USD 317.7 per bag — mainly because of lower international prices and a higher Robusta share. The USDA projects Brazil’s 2026/27 exports will hit a record 49.1 million bags; to reach that, the remaining nine months would need an average of 4.2 million bags per month, above the first quarter’s 3.7 million.

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