Vietnam’s 2025–2026 coffee crop-year exports reached about 1.8 million tonnes, up 21% year-on-year, but export value rose only about 1%, to about USD 8.5 billion. Against a backdrop of recovering global supply and downward pressure on selling prices, the coffee industry faces an urgent need to shift from “expanding volume” to “raising value,” requiring proactive management of market risk.
At the 2025–2026 coffee crop-year review meeting held on October 19, Do Xuan Hien, office director of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said Vietnam’s coffee output is estimated at about 31.7 million bags (60 kg each, equivalent to about 1.9 million tonnes), up about 6%–10% from the previous crop year; Robusta accounts for over 90% of total output, further consolidating Vietnam’s dominance in this category globally.
VICOFA estimates this crop year’s coffee exports at about 1.8 million tonnes and USD 8.5 billion in value. Although export volume grew 21%, export value rose only about 1% versus the previous crop year. Specifically, unroasted green coffee exports neared 1.65 million tonnes worth nearly USD 7 billion — volume up 21.4% but value down 1.5%.
This performance shows that volume expansion has not translated into corresponding value growth. After a phase in which earlier high coffee prices lifted export value, the industry is adapting to an adverse market environment of improving global supply and intensifying downward price trends.
Per International Coffee Organization (ICO) data, the monthly composite indicator price averaged 262.18 cents/lb in September 2026, down 8.7% month-on-month. Supply from Brazil’s harvest, combined with expectations of ample inventories, continues to exert downward pressure on the market. The ICO expects that after four consecutive years of supply shortfalls, the global coffee market will swing to a surplus of about 3 million bags in 2025–2026, potentially pressuring prices in Q3 2026.
Still, price direction depends on multiple variables. Certified exchange inventories remain low, and weather risks across major producing regions could alter the supply outlook. As international buyers gain more choices from Brazil and other exporters, Vietnam’s ability to sustain export prices will increasingly hinge on product quality, delivery timing, and contract terms.
VICOFA vice chairman Do Ha Nam noted that coffee’s long shelf life can ease the pressure of “bumper crop, falling prices” (the Vietnamese saying “được mùa, mất giá”). Farmers can actively store their harvest and choose the best selling window; inventories from the previous season can also be released to market, hedging against the concentrated arrival of the new crop.
But storage capacity does not mean growers and businesses can fully avoid risk. For farmers, falling raw-material prices, compounded by high costs for fertilizer, labor, and orchard maintenance, squeeze margins and hinder reinvestment. For exporters, price volatility puts severe pressure on inventory management, working capital, and the execution of signed contracts.
Deep processing: a strategic path to raise Vietnamese coffee’s value
Entering the 2026–2027 crop year, Vietnam’s coffee sector must simultaneously address the challenges of recovering international supply, weakening price trends, and rising requirements for quality and origin traceability. Evolving market standards — particularly the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) — require companies to be well prepared on plantation-area data, supply-chain transparency, and compliance across destination markets.
Against this backdrop, raising the share of deep-processed coffee is seen as a key strategy to lift export value, reduce relative dependence on green-bean exports, and reach high-value customer segments.
Per VICOFA, in 2025–2026 deep-processed coffee exports reached about 142,600 tonnes (unconverted), worth nearly USD 1.5 billion; versus the previous crop year, volume grew about 15% and value 14%.
These results show the deep-processing segment continues to expand. But to turn it into a sustainable growth engine, companies must invest comprehensively in processing technology, quality control, market research, product development, and brand building.
Instant, roasted, blended, and private-label coffee product lines require entirely different production, marketing, and distribution capabilities than bulk green-bean trading. Companies must also secure stable, quality raw-material supply, meet roaster standards, and build distribution networks capable of absorbing capacity.
Amid coffee price volatility, industry growth no longer relies solely on crop yield or market expansion. Risk-management capability across price, supply-chain organization, quality uplift, and high-value product development will increasingly determine a company’s operating performance.
As the world’s largest Robusta producer, Vietnam has a solid foundation to leverage its raw-material advantage. The primary challenge is converting output leadership into higher economic value, ensuring the coffee industry retains long-term competitiveness even if the market environment weakens.
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