Coffee Falls as Brazil’s Real Slumps After Lula’s Win (26 October 2026)

Coffee opened the week sharply lower as Brazil’s post-election currency sell-off increased the incentive to hedge exports. December Arabica fell below 295 cents before recovering to settle at 300.95 cents/lb, down 6.50 cents or 2.11%.

The rebound left December lower for a third consecutive session, but nearby coffee continued to command a substantial premium. March and May fell more heavily, widening December’s advantage over both deliveries.

London also recovered from its early lows. November Robusta settled at $3,194/t, down $34 or 1.05%, while January lost $41 to $3,201/t. November’s fifth consecutive decline came as harvesting began in Vietnam and rising Robusta exchange inventories added to supply pressure.

Brazil’s currency shock increases selling incentives

The full report connects futures performance with physical supply, weather, processing demand and changes in exchange inventories. CocoaIntel examines how these developments affect market structure and the next trading session.

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