Arabica Coffee Touches One-Month High, Supported by Low Inventories and a Stronger Brazilian Real

Huitong Finance app reports — [Arabica Coffee Touches One-Month High, Supported by Low Inventories and a Stronger Brazilian Real]

(1) Arabica coffee futures hit a one-month high on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) on Monday, mainly supported by still very low exchange inventories and a stronger real in major producer Brazil.

(2) Arabica rose 1.5% to around USD 3.10 per pound, up about 6.5% on the week, at one point touching a one-month high of USD 3.14 per pound.

(3) The Brazilian real has kept strengthening on market expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro will be elected president; real appreciation lowers exporters’ returns in local-currency terms, dampening their willingness to sell.

(4) Exchange-certified inventories stand at about 240,000 bags, not far from last month’s 27-year low of about 218,000 bags. Market participants are increasingly worried about whether Brazilian supply can reach exchange warehouses before the December contract expires.

(5) Robusta rose 1.5% to around USD 3,454 per tonne; Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer, is expected to keep 2026/27 output stable, with gains from newly planted trees offsetting losses from adverse early-year weather.

(6) But some meteorologists consider this year’s El Niño the strongest on record and expect it to severely affect the next crop, so relief in global markets may be short-lived.

(7) In cocoa, London cocoa fell 0.3% to around GBP 4,344 per tonne after touching a roughly six-week high on Wednesday; New York cocoa rose 0.2% to around USD 5,655 per tonne.

(8) Ivory Coast port cocoa arrivals for the week ending October 18 were estimated at 37,000 tonnes, down about 56% year-on-year, with drought in main growing areas raising fears of damaged pods next season.

(9) Raw sugar fell 1.6% to around 20.51 cents per pound after touching a 19-month high on Wednesday; in Brazil, El Niño-related excess rains slowed September output and lowered cane sugar content, and prices consolidated after the earlier rally.

(10) The Indian government asked oil-marketing companies to cut to zero the share of sugar diverted to ethanol production in the 2026/27 supply year, and Indian sugar stocks fell as a result — a move aimed at boosting domestic supply and easing record-high prices.

(11) Overall, coffee is biased stronger on low inventories and currency factors, while cocoa and sugar diverge and consolidate after highs; follow-up attention is on Brazilian weather, El Niño effects, and the implementation of Indian policy.

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