Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that the core profit of Guming (01364) 26H1 increased by 53.3% year-on-year, and the coffee has a significant effect on attracting new customers, maintaining its "better than the market" rating. The company achieved a revenue of 7.47 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%; Adjusted profit of 1.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%; After adjustment, the core profit was 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.3%, with a core profit margin of 23.2%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points; IFRS net profit was 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, mainly due to the disturbance of high base changes in the fair value of 25H1 preferred shares. The bank expects a revenue of RMB 162/195/232 billion and an adjusted profit of RMB 32/40/4.6 billion from 2026 to 2028. The latest closing price corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 17/14/12 times.
The main viewpoints of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
In the first half of the year, store performance remained resilient, and coffee and breakfast made a positive contribution
26H1 GMV was 19.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%; Sold 1.11 billion cups, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%; The GMV of a single store was 1.4175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; The daily average cup volume of a single store is 440 cups, which is basically the same as the same period last year. The comprehensive effect of maintaining stable store efficiency is the expansion of coffee beverage and breakfast scenes, as well as the reduction of subsidies for food delivery platforms. Based on GMV/cup, the unit price is estimated to be about 17.8 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The bank believes that this is mainly driven by factors such as the return of takeaway subsidies to normal and the expansion of new categories such as breakfast.
The increase in gross profit margin combined with cost dilution highlights the elasticity of operating profit
The gross profit margin of 26H1 was 33.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year; The sales and distribution, administrative, and R&D expense ratios were 5.1%/2.8%/1.7%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5/0.5/0.3 percentage points. The lower growth rate of sales expenses is related to the difference in revenue and marketing pace, while the decrease in administrative and R&D expense ratios mainly comes from operating leverage.
In the first half of the year, there were 797 net store openings, and the channels continued to sink. The management remains optimistic about the long-term store scale
In the first half of the year, 1318 new businesses were opened, 521 businesses were closed, and a net increase of 797 businesses was recorded. As of the end of the period, there were 14351 businesses, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4%. According to the company announcement, the slowdown is mainly due to a greater emphasis on store quality, prioritizing the upgrade of sixth generation stores, and raising site selection standards; The proportion of second tier and below, as well as townships, is 82%/45% respectively, an increase of 1/2 percentage point year-on-year. According to management communication, in the longer term, the company's store target is at least 30000, and may even reach over 40000.
Coffee machines have covered over 90% of stores, with significant new customer acquisition effects
As of the end of June, approximately 13500 stores were equipped with coffee machines, and a total of 51 new products were launched in 26H1, including 12 new coffee products; From the perspective of customer base, more than 50% of the coffee business comes from new customers. With the development of the business, repeat purchases by old customers are also significantly increasing. Consumers have gradually formed a habit of rotating consumption of tea and coffee, and the proportion of coffee revenue is expected to continue to increase in the future.
Risk statement
Industry competition and price promotions exceed expectations; Single store operation and new store expansion did not meet expectations; The expansion of new coffee/breakfast categories did not meet expectations; Raw material prices, food safety, tax rates, and exchange rate fluctuations.