Data First | 2026Q3 Offline Retail Brief

At a Glance (China Coffee Network): The weather is turning cold and the hot summer has passed. This week we bring you the third-quarter retail brief. All data come from Mashangying Brand CT, the Mashangying MSY150 b…

The weather is turning cold and the hot summer has passed. This week we bring you the third-quarter retail brief.

All data come from Mashangying Brand CT, the Mashangying MSY150 balanced model and the Mashangying full-store model; the model used is noted in each data chart. Mashangying Brand CT covers cities above county level nationwide (excluding towns and villages) and deeply covers core city clusters; formats include hypermarkets, supermarkets, small supermarkets, convenience stores and grocery stores. It covers over 300,000 brands, more than 7 million product barcodes, and about 6 billion annual orders. (The above statistics count barcodes and manufacturers with actual sales data from August 2025 to July 2026.) The quarterly brief focuses on an overview of each category; for sub-category competitive dynamics, please follow the category quarterly review reports on our public account. For the previous quarter, click: Data First | 2026Q2 Offline Retail Brief.

Sales Scale and YoY Sales

For this quarter’s offline retail brief, Mashangying selected the major categories of beverages, snack food, dairy, alcohol, condiments, personal care, convenience food, frozen food, paper cleaning, clothing cleaning, instant drinks and household-environment cleaning for sales-scale and YoY-sales observation, with analysis of specific situations within some categories below.

In traditional offline retail channels in 2026Q3, judged by YoY sales growth of major categories, the market remains under pressure, with most categories showing YoY declines.

By sales scale: beverages and snack food, the two largest categories by sales, both showed double-digit YoY declines; snack food fell 12.63%, the steepest among all categories, possibly related to the channel-fragmentation and snack-volume-channel trends noted before. Beverages fell more than 12% YoY, possibly tied to temperature, the “Lexiang” marketing campaign and other factors. Dairy fell 4.58% YoY—still declining but narrowing versus Q2 and relatively better than most categories, perhaps bottoming; alcohol, including beer, baijiu, health liquor and wine, fell 7%.

Among later categories, foods include condiments, convenience food, frozen food and instant drinks; frozen food showed within-2% YoY growth, standing out against the broad decline, while instant drinks were basically stable with small change; convenience food and condiments underperformed—convenience food, where instant noodles are nearly half, fell over 10% YoY, the third-steepest decline; condiments did slightly better, down about 5%.

The personal-care group includes personal care, paper cleaning, clothing cleaning and household-environment cleaning; all four declined, with narrow gaps, each down 3%–7% YoY.

Price Level: Mashangying Price Index (WPI)

Here we use the Mashangying Price Index (WPI) to observe price-level changes of major categories over the past year. WPI uses 100 as baseline; the value reflects a category’s price index as a percentage relative to the same month last year—100 means flat versus the same month last year, above 100 means the price level rose YoY, below 100 means it fell.

Focusing on food overall and some sub-categories: in 2026Q3 the food market held basically steady between 98.5 and 99, with a slight dip in September; instant drinks and condiments approached 99.5 in early Q3 but both slipped below 99 and to around 99 in September; convenience food’s price index also trended down after July; dairy was one of the few improving categories, with its index rising from below 98 in July to around 98.5 in September; frozen food dipped to around 97 in July then recovered but remained low among sub-categories; snack food held steady in early Q3 but dipped visibly in September. Overall, most food sub-categories showed a weakening, oscillating pattern in 2026Q3, with price levels still clearly under pressure.

Looking at beverages and alcohol, neither touched the 100 baseline within the past year, with price levels broadly under pressure. Entering 2026Q3, beverages held roughly steady with small fluctuations near 99; alcohol dipped around July then gradually recovered to 98, with an overall upward, improving trend.

For personal-care and some sub-category price indices, the trends diverged but broadly rebounded since the start of 2026. In 2026Q3, household-environment cleaning stayed above the baseline, rising for two months July–August and briefly above 101 before a slight September pullback, still above 101, showing a YoY price uptrend; clothing cleaning, after breaking 100 in May, fluctuated narrowly within 100–101 in Q3, fairly steady; the personal-care aggregate and personal care tracked nearly identically, both oscillating around 99 with a clear improvement from the year’s low; paper cleaning, though the lowest-priced in the group, continued…

Beverages: Only sugar-free tea grew YoY; most categories fell double digits

Within beverages, we observed eleven typical categories—packaged water, sweetened ready-to-drink tea, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea, milk drinks, ready-to-drink juice, soda, energy drinks, sports drinks, nutrient drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and Chinese wellness water—which together exceed 80% of the beverage category.

In 2026Q3, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea showed the most prominent expansion, its share jumping from 5.60% to 7.15%, the largest gain among categories; soda and packaged water both rose slightly to 13.11% and 13.05% respectively; sports drinks and ready-to-drink coffee also ticked up to 4.98% and 1.56%. Milk drinks, though still first at 13.60%, saw its share fall over 1 percentage point, the steepest drop; ready-to-drink juice fell from 11.06% to 10.54%, sweetened ready-to-drink tea from 10.94% to 10.82%, energy drinks from 7.45% to 7.40%; nutrient drinks and Chinese wellness water also slipped slightly to 2.22% and 0.88%. Overall, sugar-free ready-to-drink tea gained the most in share and milk drinks lost the most; the beverage market likely remains driven by the health-concept consumption trend, with consumer habits and choices shifting.

The YoY sales growth of these categories was also bleak: sugar-free ready-to-drink tea was the only category with positive YoY growth, at +12.16%, standing alone. The other ten all declined, mostly deeply. Ready-to-drink coffee fell 6.88%, the smallest drop among negatives; sports drinks, soda and packaged water all fell 10%–11%; energy drinks and sweetened ready-to-drink tea fell near 13%; ready-to-drink juice and milk drinks widened further to -16.31% and -18.37%; Chinese wellness water and nutrient drinks were the steepest decliners, both over -20%.

The market pressure in beverages is self-evident, but the divergence behind the layered performance says more. Sugar-free ready-to-drink tea stood alone, its YoY sales growth even exceeding the same period last year, meaning the health concept retains strong resilience and consumer acceptance—despite hiccups, consumers keep migrating toward “healthier, lighter” choices.

On the other hand, among the many declining categories, some were affected by subjective factors—the “one-yuan (or free, or other forms) Lexiang” marketing that swept beverage retail this year, especially impacting sports drinks, energy drinks, sweetened ready-to-drink tea and soda. Typically consumers scan a code on opening for a second bottle at one yuan or free; terminals settle via mini-program verification without scanning barcodes, creating a significant gap between actual shipments and transactions, also affecting statistics on real demand and market size.

But the Lexiang marketing does not distort the sales-scale impact despite shipment-statistic deviations—meaning, with the same total consumer demand satisfied, the contraction in sales scale is real. On one hand, amid anti-involution, whether pushing prices lower via such marketing helps healthy industry development is questionable; on the other, whether Lexiang products’ huge competitive pressure on non-participating products and categories—and their squeeze on shelf space and consumer demand—helps healthy development is likewise questionable.

But regardless, in traditional offline retail channels, 2026Q3 shows YoY decline in sales scale, with most categories down double digits YoY.

Finally, new-product counts across beverage sub-categories in 2026Q3 universally slowed, all shrinking YoY. Ready-to-drink juice fell most sharply, from 919 to 340 new products (over -50%); milk drinks and soda also contracted, net -102 and -98; Chinese wellness water, sweetened and sugar-free ready-to-drink tea each net -40+; sports drinks and ready-to-drink coffee roughly halved; energy drinks and nutrient drinks had very low bases, with under 10 new products in Q3.

Snack Food: Chinese pastries grew YoY; konjac snacks turned down

Within snack food, we analyzed seven categories—puffed food, Western pastries, meat jerky, nut mixes, Chinese pastries, spicy snacks and konjac snacks—together nearly 60% of the category.

Versus last Q3, the structure tilted toward traditional Chinese categories, partly because this year’s Mid-Autumn fell ten days earlier than last year, concentrating mooncake/Chinese-pastry consumption in Q3. Puffed food remained first at 13.60% but clearly shrank YoY; Western pastries, meat jerky, spicy snacks and konjac snacks all declined in share, with meat jerky from 11.15% to 10.80% and spicy snacks notably down. In contrast, Chinese pastries and nut mixes were the two categories gaining share, from 8.18%/7.34% to 10.43%/8.04%, the most significant expansion. Overall, the contraction of Western and heavy-flavor snacks versus the expansion of Chinese and nut categories formed the main line of Q3 snack-structure change.

For YoY sales growth, Chinese pastries were the only positive category at +10.02%, likely tied to the Mid-Autumn timing shift. The other six all declined: nut mixes -5.50% (smallest); Western pastries and konjac snacks -13.90% and -14.84%; meat jerky widened to -16.38%; puffed food and spicy snacks were the steepest, -19.09% and -22.22%. Notably, konjac snacks—a “dark horse” in past quarters—also showed double-digit YoY sales decline this quarter; whether from seasonal short-term shifts or a fading new-category dividend bears watching.

Dairy: Elderly milk powder / chilled pure milk grew double digits; room-temperature pure milk stabilized

Within dairy, we observed six representative categories—ice cream, chilled pure milk, room-temperature pure milk, chilled yogurt, room-temperature yogurt and elderly milk powder—together over 90% of the category.

In share, room-temperature pure milk remained highest, edging from 36.38% to 36.94%; chilled yogurt and chilled pure milk both gained, from 14.45%/4.25% to 15.17%/5.55%, with chilled pure milk’s YoY share gain relatively clear; elderly milk powder also edged up to 2.54%. By contrast, ice cream’s share contracted most, from 27.07% to 24.72%; room-temperature yogurt also fell from 7.74% to 7.25%. Overall, room-temperature pure milk’s share rose rather than fell, chilled categories kept penetrating, while ice cream and room-temperature yogurt clearly shrank—dairy’s consumption structure is being further adjusted and restructured.

For YoY sales, performance diverged. Elderly milk powder led at +21.28%, chilled pure milk also strong at +17.03%, both continuing prior momentum. Chilled yogurt was basically flat at +0.18%, turning positive from negative versus last quarter. Room-temperature pure milk, room-temperature yogurt and ice cream remained in decline, but room-temperature pure milk and room-temperature yogurt’s YoY drops narrowed markedly versus Q2 (Q2: room-temperature pure milk -10.14%, room-temperature yogurt -14.48%)—these relatively positive trends may together form the dairy category’s bottoming. Only ice cream remained in deep YoY decline, no improvement versus Q2.

Condiments: Songrong fresh’s sales growth turned down

Within condiments, we analyzed eight typical categories—soy sauce, vinegar, hotpot soup base, hotpot dip, recipe-style compound seasoning, songrong fresh, MSG and chicken essence—together about 45% of the category.

In YoY share change, condiment categories moved little in 2026Q3. Soy sauce remained highest, edging from 21.71% to 21.99%, leadership stable; recipe-style compound seasoning rose from 4.46% to 4.80%, the clearest expansion; hotpot soup base rose slightly to 5.61%; MSG and songrong fresh also edged up to 2.27% and 0.53%. Conversely, vinegar slipped from 5.76% to 5.66%, chicken essence from 4.50% to 4.27%, the clearer contractions; hotpot dip stayed flat around 1.22%. Structurally, compound and convenient cooking solutions gained share slowly while traditional single seasonings like chicken essence and vinegar slipped—consistent with broader condiment trends, but slowly.

For YoY sales, condiments overall still face strong downside pressure with divergence. Recipe-style compound seasoning and MSG were the only two with positive growth, both under 2%; songrong fresh slipped slightly -0.82%, basically flat—but versus its past triple-digit or dozens-of-percent growth, whether its rapid-growth phase has ended bears watching (its Q2 YoY was over +6%). The other five declined: soy sauce -4.50%, its drop weighing on the category as the largest; hotpot soup base and hotpot dip -5.59% and -5.90%; vinegar -7.28%; chicken essence was steepest at over -10%.

Personal Care: All sub-categories declined YoY

Within personal care, we observed seven categories—sanitary pads, shampoo, toothpaste, toothbrushes, body wash, adult diapers and children’s diapers—over 80% of the category.

In 2026Q3, personal-care share structures changed modestly. Shampoo edged from 21.36% to 21.52%; sanitary pads fell from 21.29% to 20.10%, the clearest contraction. Toothpaste, body wash and toothbrushes were basically flat; adult and children’s diapers held at 1.04% and 0.82%.

In 2026Q3, all observed personal-care sub-categories had negative YoY sales growth, from about -5% to -11%, a fairly severe picture. Shampoo fell -5.20%, the smallest; body wash and toothpaste -5.50% and -5.79%; children’s diapers -6.24%, swinging from over +20% last quarter to decline, possibly as the infant-diaper public-opinion episode faded and consumers returned to prior channels; toothbrushes and adult diapers both -7.34%, mid-range. Sanitary pads were steepest at over -10%. New-product counts across personal-care sub-categories all fell YoY, with toothbrushes the steepest, from 380 to 142 new products.

Convenience Food: Instant noodles / room-temperature sausage / chilled sausage all fell double digits YoY

In 2026Q3 convenience food, we observed five categories—instant noodles, room-temperature sausage, instant congee, chilled sausage and luncheon meat—nearly 80% of the category.

In share, sub-categories changed little YoY. Instant noodles remained core near half, from 43.78% to 43.65%; room-temperature sausage fell from 26.36% to 25.82%, the clearer contraction; instant congee and luncheon meat edged up to 6.31% and 1.24%; chilled sausage from 1.51% to 1.44%.

In 2026Q3, all observed convenience-food sub-categories had negative YoY sales, from about -6% to -15%, fairly severe; instant noodles, room-temperature sausage and chilled sausage—the larger shares—all fell double digits YoY. Instant congee fell -6.66%, the smallest; luncheon meat -9.57%, widening. New-product counts slowed across all sub-categories; instant noodles fell most, from 628 to 179 new products (about -3/4); room-temperature sausage and instant congee net -97 and -90; chilled sausage and luncheon meat, small bases, dropped to 24 and 6.

Frozen Food: Only dumplings and tangyuan declined; others grew YoY

Frozen food has many categories; we observed ten—hotpot balls, shrimp paste, dumplings, tangyuan, frozen sausage, frozen buns, hand cakes, pizza, frozen prepared chicken and frozen prepared beef—nearly 75% of the category.

In 2026Q3 share change, the structural migration from traditional staple frozen items to new convenient frozen items continued. Dumplings remained highest but fell from 19.88% to 18.85%; tangyuan from 9.95% to 8.27%, both clearly contracting. In contrast, hotpot balls rose from 10.35% to 11.19%, and frozen sausage, frozen buns and shrimp paste also gained notably. Among the ten observed, only dumplings and tangyuan (traditional) contracted, with hand cakes dipping only marginally.

As the only category with positive sales growth, frozen food’s sub-categories diverged. Pizza led at +33.26%, frozen prepared beef and shrimp paste followed at +23.15% and +18.68%—all sub-5% share, small but high-growth; hotpot balls and frozen prepared chicken also gained +9.83% and +7.97%, sizable categories near 10% share making those gains substantial; frozen sausage, frozen buns and hand cakes, smaller in share and scale, grew slower. Only two sub-categories declined: dumplings -3.66% and tangyuan -15.59%.

Small-scale categories growing fast, mid-scale slowing, larger-scale sustaining momentum, traditional frozen items contracting and demand diverting—together form this quarter’s frozen-food picture; these trends’ direction in coming quarters may decide the category’s trajectory.

New-product counts also fell: frozen buns from 132 to 26 (net -106, steepest); frozen prepared chicken from 126 to 50 (net -76); dumplings and hotpot balls -63 and -42.

Paper Cleaning: Toilet paper share and YoY both fell; cotton-soft wipes grew double digits YoY

Within paper cleaning, we observed facial tissue, toilet paper, wet wipes and cotton-soft wipes—over 95% of the category in 2026Q3.

The internal share structure kept trending in 2026Q3. Facial tissue led, rising from 47.36% to 48.51%; cotton-soft wipes and wet wipes also gained to 5.64% and 5.88%. Conversely, toilet paper—a traditional form—fell from 39.90% to 37.08%, the clearer contraction, perhaps reflecting a shift from toilet paper to more scenario-specific, dedicated paper products. For YoY sales, divergence was clear: cotton-soft wipes led at +13.25%, wet wipes +5.16%, both niche, personal-care-leaning scenarios; facial tissue fell -4.26%, toilet paper double digits—mapping some contraction in traditional basic paper demand. New-product counts all shrank sharply; facial tissue from 733 to 204 (net -529, steepest).

Clothing Cleaning: Washing powder share and YoY both fell

Within clothing cleaning, we analyzed four categories—laundry liquid, washing powder/soap powder, fabric softener and laundry pods—about 85% of the category in 2026Q3.

The share change continued the powder-to-liquid shift. Laundry liquid rose from 39.66% to 41.85%, surpassing washing powder/soap powder as the largest; washing powder/soap powder fell from 39.94% to 38.38%. Fabric softener and laundry pods also edged up to 4.72% and 0.93%, reflecting more specialized, segmented products. For YoY sales, all four declined but diverged: laundry liquid -1.80% (smallest); laundry pods -2.43%, fabric softener -3.84%, all under -5%. Washing powder/soap powder fell -10.56%, far exceeding the others, reflecting further migration to laundry liquid and ongoing demand outflow.

Instant Drinks: Meal-replacement powder grew double digits; instant coffee fell double digits

Within instant drinks, we observed five categories—cereal, soy-milk powder, sesame paste, instant coffee and meal-replacement powder—nearly 60% of the category in 2026Q3.

In YoY share, cereal, the largest, rose from about 25% to 28%, consolidating leadership; meal-replacement powder also expanded clearly from 3.55% to 4.19%, continuing its momentum and reflecting health-trend push; soy-milk powder and sesame paste slipped to 10.16% and 7.76%. Conversely, instant coffee shrank from 8.27% to 7.40%, the clearest contraction among observed categories—possibly as in-store freshly made coffee spreads and consumer coffee demand upgrades. Two trends may parallel: health-concept meal-replacement and cereal gaining share over traditional soy-milk/sesame; and instant coffee’s share contracting as store-made coffee penetrates.

For YoY sales, meal-replacement powder led at +17.85%, cereal near +10%, sesame paste +0.70% basically flat. Soy-milk powder fell -2.61%; instant coffee double-digit decline—consistent with the share analysis.

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