China’s coffee industry is passing through a historic inflection point — from “niche novelty” to “everyday staple.” Hongcan Industry Research Institute’s latest Coffee & Tea Beverage Category Development Report 2026 puts the number of coffee drinkers in China at more than 550 million in 2026, with annual per-capita cups rising from 16.7 in 2023 to 28.6 in 2025.
The longer horizon is even starker. From the 2018 to 2024 coffee years, China’s coffee consumption compound annual growth rate reached 12.4%, against just 0.6% for global consumption over the same period. Between October 2025 and September 2026, national coffee consumption is expected to grow further to 6,420 dry bags (roughly 38,500 tonnes). On both per-capita and total-volume measures, China is in an accelerated penetration phase, growing far faster than the world average.
Freshly brewed segment: RMB 159 billion projected for 2026
Freshly brewed coffee carries most of that growth. Hongcan Big Data puts the market at RMB 140.5 billion in 2025, up 19.4% year on year, and projects RMB 159 billion for 2026. Longer term, growth rates may taper as the segment matures, but annual growth is expected to hold above 10% over the next three years.
Store expansion tracks the same curve. As of June 2026, China had 284,000 coffee and tea beverage outlets, up 20.1% year on year; the chain-operation rate reached 47.3%, up 7.8 percentage points; and city coverage reached 97.6%, with outlets present in more than 90% of Chinese cities. Tier-3 cities and below saw outlet numbers rise 21.6% year on year, continuing the shift of the store network down-market.
Entrepreneurial activity remains high. Per Qichacha, 40,000 new coffee and tea beverage-related companies were registered in 2025, bringing the total to 156,000; between January and July 2026, another 16,000 were registered, lifting the total to 164,000.
Prices fall: average spend down to RMB 25, more products under RMB 10
Pricing is the most direct driver of this penetration round. Hongcan Big Data shows average per-customer spending at coffee and tea beverage outlets falling year by year from 2024 through 2026, stabilising at around RMB 25 in the first half of 2026. New-product price bands are sliding toward the low end: products priced RMB 10–15 now account for 9.9% of new launches, and those under RMB 10 for 11.7%, while mid-to-high-end launches above RMB 30 are clustering in the RMB 30–35 band.
Falling prices lower the barrier to purchase and shift the category from occasional indulgence to daily, high-frequency consumption. The customer base is widening accordingly: in 2026, freshly brewed coffee is reaching students, blue-collar workers and senior consumers, while consumption scenarios expand from business socialising to offices, commutes, breakfast and meal pairings.
Supply chain: ingredients, equipment and delivery efficiency
Volume growth is testing the supply chain. On the ingredient side, coffee beans, dairy, syrups and flavour inputs are more abundant than ever, with Oatly, Anchor and WeiYi continuing to release dairy and flavour products purpose-built for freshly brewed coffee.
On store operations, AI tools, automation and digital management are lifting throughput and standardisation. In February 2026, Luckin Coffee’s Lucky AI agent launched on HarmonyOS, letting customers complete ordering, payment and pickup with a single voice command.
On the delivery side, competition has moved from “30 minutes on average” to “paid acceleration.” In July 2026, Meituan’s full-volume delivery orders hit a 95% rate of arrival within 30 minutes. Faster fulfilment shrinks the gap between wanting a coffee and holding one — and makes impulse purchase markedly more common.
Takeaway
Three features stand out in the report’s numbers. Demand-side volume and per-capita consumption are rising together, with consumption growth far above the global average. Supply-side store counts are expanding quickly and moving down-market, with chain rates and city coverage both climbing. And falling price points are converting lower prices into higher purchase frequency, widening the customer base beyond white-collar workers to students, blue-collar and senior drinkers. For origins, brands and distributors, the growth logic is shifting from “new-store dividend” to “frequency dividend”: whoever occupies more everyday occasions will hold the steadier base in the next phase.
Source note and disclaimer
- This article was compiled by CoffeeYo.com / China Coffee Network based on data and findings from Hongcan Industry Research Institute’s Coffee & Tea Beverage Category Development Report 2026. All rights in the original report remain with its owner. The compilation is for industry information sharing only and does not represent our position; all figures should be taken from the original report.
- Read the original: 2026 China Coffee Industry Report: over 550 million drinkers, 28.6 cups per capita, RMB 159 billion freshly brewed segment — Hongcan
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