After hitting bottom in July, the price of US C-type coffee futures (KC. NYB) began to rise again, with a 40% increase in just two months. The reporter learned that coffee futures prices have been running at a high level since the beginning of this year, and have begun to transmit to the spot market. Some retail coffee bean prices have already risen first. However, in the industry's view, considering the limited proportion of coffee bean costs in freshly brewed coffee products and the price locking mechanism of large chain coffee brands, 9.9 yuan coffee can continue in the short term.
Coffee futures prices rise again
Previously, due to weather related production cuts and asset speculation in major producing countries such as Brazil, coffee bean prices continued to rise. US C-type coffee futures broke through 430 cents per pound on February 11, 2025, setting a new record high in 47 years. Subsequently, prices continued to decline and fell back to 271.09 cents per pound in July. But in the past two months, US C-type coffee futures have risen rapidly again, breaking through to 424 cents per pound on September 15th and closing at 380.75 cents per pound on September 18th, with an overall increase of over 40%.
Multiple interviewees told First Financial reporters that the increase in coffee prices at the beginning of the year was due to production cuts in major producing countries, but the subsequent decline was due to the US tariff incident. The recent rise in coffee futures is still due to the adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the main producing region, which led to expectations of production cuts and further boosted futures prices.
According to the report of the International Coffee Organization, there will be drought and rainstorm in Brazil from August to September 2024, which will lead to a reduction in the production of coffee beans. In August 2025, there will be frost in Brazil. Although the overall impact is limited, it may still cause a reduction in the production. In addition, due to factors such as the EU's "Zero Deforestation Act", some European and American traders have accelerated stockpiling, which has also made market demand more tight.
Wang Zhendong, Chairman of Shanghai Feiyue Investment Management Co., Ltd., told First Financial reporters that the high-level operation of coffee futures has had an impact on the spot market, with the increase comparable to the futures level, and the market is already adapting to the new prices.
A person in charge of a domestic food company told First Financial reporters that the US C-type coffee futures are Arabica coffee beans, and the price futures of Robusta coffee beans used in the food industry have also risen by about 60%. The company's long-term contracts have locked in the prices of some raw materials, and the impact is relatively limited at present, but the long-term situation remains to be seen.
In terms of retail coffee beans, the market has already felt the price changes. Several netizens posted a comparison on social media, claiming that their purchases of Manner and Caf é coffee beans during the year had increased by about 30%. The reporter saw from a third-party data platform that the price of some Manner coffee beans has increased by 20-30% within 180 days, but there are also some coffee brands whose coffee bean prices are still declining. At the recent Barclays Bank Global Consumer Products Conference, Nestle CFO Anna Manz also mentioned that the coffee category has been raised by about 5%.
9.9 yuan coffee can still be enjoyed
It is worth noting that with the sustained high operation of coffee futures, domestic consumers have also begun to pay attention to the fate of 9.9 yuan low-priced coffee.
Today, reporters saw on multiple food delivery platforms and some brand apps that compared to the initial price of the food delivery war, the discount on coffee on various food delivery platforms has significantly weakened. However, there are still 2.6 yuan lucky coffee, as well as 6.9 yuan and 9.9 yuan chain coffee products such as Luckin Coffee and Kudi available for purchase.
Wang Zhendong believes that although spot coffee bean prices are rising, the impact on the total cost of freshly made coffee products has not yet reached a painful level, and the competition in the coffee market is becoming increasingly fierce, with price being one of the key factors in competition.
According to a research report by China Merchants Securities, the cost of coffee beans in a latte only accounts for 3.6% of the cost per cup, far less than the 21.6% cost of dairy products.
However, for small and medium-sized coffee shops that have survived the price war of takeaway coffee, the rise in coffee bean prices is not good news. In Wang Zhendong's view, although futures mainly affect commercial bean prices and have a relatively smaller impact on boutique coffee shops, cost pressure still exists. (This article is from First Financial)
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