Carlos Santana, the head of EISA, the Brazilian subsidiary of international trader ECOM, told the media that Brazil will export a record amount of coffee in the new crop year starting in July, as coffee production may reach a historic high.
He pointed out that due to the current market price inversion, where spot prices are higher than futures prices, growers are more motivated to sell coffee as soon as possible. It is expected that the export volume of Brazilian raw coffee will reach about 50 million bags (60 kilograms per bag).
According to industry organization CECAFE, Brazil last set a record for export volume in 2024, when 46.3 million bags of raw coffee were exported.
According to the April market report released by the International Coffee Organization, coffee prices have decreased by 2.7% compared to the previous month, with the average price dropping to 266.24 cents per pound for the month. In March, the outbreak of the US Iran conflict had pushed up coffee prices, with rising transportation, fertilizer, and inland logistics costs being the key factors causing fluctuations in coffee prices.
Sales prospects
In addition to the significant increase in production in Brazil, major coffee exporting countries such as Honduras and Vietnam have also reported a surge in export volume. The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority therefore urges traders to sell coffee as soon as possible and not be misled by speculation that the Middle East conflict may trigger a rise in coffee prices, as major coffee producing countries will release a large amount of products to the global market in the coming months.
In March, the total export volume of coffee (including various forms) worldwide reached 13.59 million bags, higher than the 13.37 million bags in March 2025, with exports from Asia and Oceania increasing by 13.1% to 5.82 million bags.
Santana pointed out that Brazil's coffee exports will help replenish the inventory of consumer countries. Due to insufficient production in some major coffee producing countries in previous years, coffee prices have skyrocketed, and the inventory of consumer countries is currently at a historical low.
Meanwhile, Santana also cautioned that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon may affect Brazil's crop harvest prospects for next year. El Ni ñ o climate usually triggers warm weather, which may prevent frost from occurring, but high temperatures can also damage the flowering period of coffee around September or October.
He believes that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will have a profound impact on farmers' sales strategies. If the negative impact of El Ni ñ o on coffee trees outweighs the positive impact, producers may slow down their sales speed.
(Caixin News Agency Malan)
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