Major Coffee Producers’ Exports May Hit Record Highs as Industry Warns of Sharp Price Drops

At a Glance (China Coffee Network): Global coffee shipments are set to surge in the new crop year—Brazil alone may export a record ~50 million bags—prompting industry voices to warn of sharply lower prices, even as El Niño threatens next year’s harvest.

Cailian Press, May 21 (editor Ma Lan) — Global coffee shipments are expected to surge in the new crop year, which could substantially depress international coffee prices. On the other hand, El Niño weather may disrupt upcoming planting arrangements and trigger coffee-price volatility.

Carlos Santana, head of EISA, the Brazilian unit of international trading house ECOM, told media that because coffee output could hit a record high, Brazil will export a record volume of coffee in the new crop year beginning in July.

He noted that because current market prices are inverted—that is, spot prices are higher than futures—growers have more incentive to sell coffee quickly; Brazil’s green-coffee exports are expected to reach about 50 million bags (each 60 kg).

According to industry body CECAFE, Brazil’s last export record was set in 2024, when it shipped 46.3 million bags of green coffee.

Separately, per the International Coffee Organization’s April market report, coffee prices fell 2.7% from the previous month, with the average price dropping to 266.24 US cents per pound in the month. In March, the outbreak of the U.S.–Iran conflict had pushed coffee prices up; rising costs of transportation, fertilizer, and inland logistics were key factors behind coffee-price volatility.

Sales outlook

Beyond Brazil’s surging output, major coffee-exporting countries such as Honduras and Vietnam have also reported export volumes set to soar. The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority has therefore urged traders to sell coffee promptly and not be misled by speculation that the Middle East conflict might drive coffee prices up, because major producing countries will flood the global market with large volumes over the coming months.

In March, total global coffee exports (in all forms) reached 13.59 million bags, higher than the 13.37 million bags of March 2025, with Asia and Oceania exports growing 13.1% to 5.82 million bags.

Santana noted that Brazil’s coffee exports will help replenish consumer countries’ inventories; because several major coffee-producing countries had insufficient output in prior years, driving coffee prices sharply higher, consumer-country inventories are currently at historic lows.

At the same time, Santana also warned that the El Niño phenomenon could affect Brazil’s crop prospects for next year. El Niño climate typically brings warm weather, which may prevent frosts, but the high temperatures could also damage coffee’s flowering period around September or October.

He believes the El Niño phenomenon will have a far-reaching impact on farmers’ sales strategies; if El Niño’s negative effects on coffee trees outweigh the positive, producers may slow their sales pace. (Cailian Press, Ma Lan)

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