The coffee price surge is quietly approaching.
On one hand, major brands are raising prices and "upgrading coffee", while on the other hand, consumers feel that Luckin and Kudi are "backstabbing".
In response to this trend, we gained a more direct understanding through close conversations with coffee brands and supply chains at the recent FBIF2026.
Several coffee industry insiders told Bohu Finance that the rise in coffee prices is an inevitable trend in the industry.
Coffee brand 'promotes coffee', consumers feel 'backstabbing'
Becoming a "Starbucks" instead of just a "Milk Snow Ice City" is a new narrative in the coffee industry.
On April 19th, Lucky Coffee, a coffee brand under the Honey Snow Group, officially announced that Dilraba and Tony Leung would be the brand's new spokespersons. This measure is a major initiative for Lucky Coffee's brand strategic layout in 2026.
At the 2026 Lucky Coffee performance conference, Pan Guofei, CEO of Lucky Coffee China, stated that he will invest 500 million yuan in brand upgrades and store support. This is also interpreted as the "upgrade" plan of Lucky Coffee.
It's not just lucky people who want to "upgrade their status".
Starting from April 2nd, Manner's popular drink "The Wizard of Oz" has raised its price by 5 yuan. Starting from April 7th, the price of single bean coffee in all stores will increase by an additional 5 yuan per cup. According to data from Narrow Gate Restaurant, Manner currently has 2503 stores nationwide.
In March, Luckin Coffee's major shareholder and controlling shareholder, Renmin Capital, reached an agreement with Nestle to acquire the global store assets of Blue Bottle Coffee.
Moving forward, Luckin Coffee and Kudi are both tightening their 9.9 yuan coffee promotion.
Consumer Xiaomeng was once a heavy fan of Luckin Coffee's "Grape Ice Extract" and loved it to the point of "drinking a cup every day". Later on, Luckin's gradually rising prices made her feel intimidated, and every time she finished reading the prices, she thought, "Forget it, let's drink Kudi. Little Dream roast, "It used to be 11 yuan 9 or 12 yuan 9, but now it is 17 yuan 9 or 21 yuan 9."
Blue Blue has made coffee her daily breakfast choice, and she drinks Kudi the most often. But recently, Blue Blue has also noticed that the price of Kudi has changed. I used to usually drink 9.9 yuan, but when it became 12.9 yuan, I could still accept it. But now it's 16.9 yuan, and a larger cup costs 17.9 yuan, so I can't accept it, "said Lan Lan.
9.9 yuan of coffee doesn't make money
The price increase of coffee is actually due to multiple factors. The most direct impact is the increase in raw material costs.
Brazil and Vietnam, as the main coffee producing areas, have been frequently affected by extreme weather conditions such as drought and high temperatures in recent years, resulting in a sharp decline in production. In 2025, the futures price of Arabica coffee beans reached a 47 year high, rising 118% within a year. In 2026, the situation did not become optimistic, and coffee bean prices remained under high pressure.
Coffee roaster Xiao Chen has been deeply involved in the coffee supply chain for five to six years. He said that due to various factors, the prices of coffee beans in enterprises have also been adjusted, such as the price of a certain Brazilian raw material rising from around 30 yuan/kg to over 60 yuan/kg.
But in Xiao Chen's view, the increase in raw material costs is only one of the factors contributing to the rise in coffee prices. The more crucial reason is that commercial coffee no longer wants to continue doing "loss making business" and must start pursuing profits.
The previous 9.9 yuan may not have made any profit, the second may have been reverse payment, and the third may have relied on other businesses to increase profits. "Xiao Chen believes that, including the costs of operations and other expenses, 9.9 yuan is close to the cost price of a cup of coffee.
Xiao Chen further mentioned that the cost of chain coffee will also be passed on to franchisees or joint venture partners, but in fact, they all want to make money.
In this situation, price increase has become an inevitable choice.
On this point, coffee practitioner Eric holds the same view. He believes that selling a cup of coffee like Lucky Coffee for five or six yuan is a loss
Price increase is the current situation in the coffee industry, and it is also a choice for the industry to develop to a certain stage.
The general manager of Piye Coffee Retail stated in a media interview at FBIF2026, "For many players and brands in this industry, the transition from relatively low-quality price competition to high-quality value competition will gradually occur. I believe this transition will happen quickly
The boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is becoming blurred
Behind the continuous price increases of coffee players, an undeniable fact is that commercial coffee has the confidence to raise prices.
At the FBIF 2026 site, more than one coffee industry insider told Bohu Finance that coffee itself does not have obvious barriers. A brand has it, and B brand can also buy it.
In this situation, the boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is also becoming blurred.
Xiao Chen believes that there is not much difference in the raw materials used between commercial coffee and specialty coffee, the only difference being in emotional value. The overall atmosphere and experience of boutique coffee shops will be better.
But at the same time, specialty coffee has been hit less by the price war than expected.
The General Manager of Piye Coffee Retail believes that under the price war, the value of coffee has been severely weakened and diluted for consumers. But as a brand, I am happy to see such a change, as the market quickly cultivates some consumers' demand for coffee through low-priced and high-quality products.
The above-mentioned person mentioned, "I think the entire coffee market is getting bigger and better. Although everyone says it's very competitive and there are many price wars, there are still many players willing to participate, which to some extent reflects that this industry is thriving
More and more consumers are becoming aware of the coffee category, and the customer base for premium coffee is further increasing.
During the on-site interview at FBIF 2026, Bohu Finance also learned about some new consumer voices and trends.
After the price increase of commercial coffee, most of them are priced at over ten yuan per cup. This pricing is driving some consumers to turn to premium coffee.
Whether it's Xiao Meng as a consumer or Xiao Chen as a supply chain practitioner, they all told Bohu Finance that instead of buying a regular coffee for over ten yuan, it's better to spend a little more money to buy a premium coffee with a better experience.
Xiao Chen believes that after consumers have a certain understanding of coffee, they will want to drink better coffee instead of pursuing cheaper coffee.
And this is also the key reason why Piye Coffee always pursues "small and beautiful" – hoping to maintain the emotional value of coffee for consumers.
In conclusion
It can be seen that the coffee industry, which has undergone parity, is ushering in new developments beyond parity.
Rather than saying that the boundary between commercial coffee and specialty coffee is blurring, it is more accurate to say that the entire coffee industry is accelerating its reshaping. Luckin Coffee is no longer the Luckin Coffee of the past. Lucky Coffee doesn't want to continue being a "Honey Snow Ice City", and Piye Coffee doesn't claim to be a boutique coffee.
The possibilities of the coffee track are still full of imagination.
This article originates from: Bohu Finance
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